We all know that following favourites blindly will eventually send a punter broke but at the same time investing on the right favourite is the quickest way to consistently profit as a punter.

1. Stats On Winning Favorites 2019
2. How Many Odds On Favourites Win

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In last week’s column we looked at the impact of starting price which clearly showed $2 chances win more than $3 chances, horses at $5 win more than runners at $6 etc with the starting price of a horse accurately reflecting the horses probability, but with betting markets framed to a figure higher than 100 percent it is impossible for a punter to finish in front long term by following any particular pricing group.

This week we look at how favourites fare at each of the metropolitan tracks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and try to find some form factors that move favourites into long term profitability.

As always, this column is not about right or wrong answers – the sole purpose is education and learning from each other so the more contributions the better.

The Favourites - Jan 1, 2013- Dec 31, 2017

There are a host of form factors which improve the figures at each of the tracks.

Favourites launching from barrier one are profitable at Rosehill, Caulfield and Doomben.

Flemington has the worst record for favourites but if you concentrate on staying races the figures look markedly different.

Punters are often wary of favourites on wet tracks but on the majority of metropolitan tracks they are actually profitable

Along with barriers, distance and track conditions, many other form factors influence the profitability of favourites including position in running, field size, apprentices, handicapper rating, career wins, last start winners, number of runs in a campaign, beaten favourite last start, weight and change of distance.

They are just some of the factors we will look at in the weeks ahead.

Obviously, sports betting is gambling. However, there is a solid strategy that you can earn some money like an investment that is offered a bank. It uses 'odds-on' favorite on online bookmakers. If you are interested in this betting strategy and getting money from gambling, read tips below.

What is an “Odds-on” favorite?

An “odds-on” favorite is a selection where the money that you gamble returns less than the amount you gambled. For example it is when you bet $100 but you win less than $100. An “evens” bet will win you the same amount of money as you gambled but an “odds-on” bet will give you less. For example: 1/3 = Three to one ON – This means to win $10 you must gamble $30. So you will win back less than your original stake.

Where do we see “odds-on” betting?

Everywhere, especially in team sports and tennis.

For example you may see a fixture like this in the English FA Cup: Manchester United vs Cheltenham F.C.

For almost everyone – the fans, the bookmakers and the punters - it is very obvious that Manchester SHOULD win this football match. A few possible reasons are:

a) Manchester United are in the Premier League and Cheltenham FC are in Championship League 3
b) Manchester United are playing at home
c) Cheltenham FC have never beaten Manchester United in a competitive game

So the bookmakers would probably offer odds that look something like this:

Manchester United to win 1/20
Draw 8/1
Cheltenham to win 16/1

This means that if you bet on Manchester United then you would have to bet a lot of money to return a small amount. If you bet $100 and Manchester United win then you will return $105 – a profit of $5 (plus your original bet)

Why would anyone bet on “Odds-on” favorites?

Betting on “odds-on” favorites can sometimes feel like a waste of money because it often seems that the returns are very small or to get a good profitable return then you often need to gamble a lot of money. Also, the risks can often seem too high for such small returns, losing after gambling on a favorite can be very disappointing and annoying.

However, a return of $5 on a $100 bet is still a profit of 5% and this is something that punters like to use when comparing how much return a typical bank would give if the same investment was made. For people who gamble on long odds-on favorites they believe their money is “safe” and it pays back more than a bank and so for these types of gamblers it is worth doing as it is profitable.

What is the strategy?

With the following system of strategic betting – it may be possible for you to get profitable returns and at the same time keep your risks lower. It comes from the old idea that “over time, a dripping tap will fill a bucket”.
This betting strategy is a long term investment plan and needs patience and the knowledge and ability to be able to bet on a lot of different sports. However, some sports should be avoided at all times when it comes to putting large amounts on “odds-on” favorites.

What are the “guidelines” for using the strategy?

If you choose to follow any betting strategies you find here or elsewhere on-line, or fellow punters recommend to you or you discover on your own, you will often find or make “guidelines” that are recommended. Here are some for this strategy:

1. Start with a fixed amount – if possible – a minimum of $1000.
2. Only bet on “odds on” favorites.
3. Place at least one bet a week. (The more you do a week the quicker your total will increase)
4. Only gamble 10% or less of your “total” amount.
5. Do not place bets on horse racing, F1 or golf events.

Stats On Winning Favorites 2019

The way the system works is as follows: It is recommend that you bet 10% or less of your total fixed amount and that you choose odds on bets that you feel will almost definitely win. You can also look at different bookmakers odds as sometimes odds-on prices can be quite different. The most profitable odds-on bets come from rugby, cricket, soccer, tennis, American Football, basketball, baseball and ice hockey. Golf and F1 should be avoided as there are too many variables – for example the weather that can strongly affect the result and make things too risky to bet odds on – use F1 and golf to find “value” bets instead. Odds on betting is also not recommended on horse racing for too many reasons to be given here.

What happens when you follow the strategy?

The following table shows what happens if you gamble on odds on soccer, cricket, American football, ice hockey and rugby matches.

How Many Odds On Favourites Win

Result

So you can see that after gambling on “odds-on” favorites only and by not betting more than 10% of the total value the profit is at over $200 within just ten bets. That also includes a losing bet – note that also 5% was bet where the odds offered were higher than 1/3. The risk is slightly higher and the result is not so certain for higher odds on bets so it is sometimes a good idea to reduce the stake (the amount you bet) for some fixtures. The thing to remember is that “A winner is a WINNER – no matter how small the return!” and overtime you can fill that bucket with the drips! Good luck!